A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
